B5: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. CO2  concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions. The ocean has absorbed about 30% of the emitted anthropogenic carbon dioxide, causing ocean acidification (see Figure SPM.4). {2.2, 3.8, 5.2, 6.2, 6.3}

 

Multiple observed indicators of a changing global carbon cycle:

(a) atmospheric concentrations  of  carbon  dioxide  (CO2)  from  Mauna  Loa  (19°32′N,  155°34′W  –  red)  and  South  Pole (89°59′S, 24°48′W – black) since 1958;

 

(b) partial pressure of dissolved CO2 at the ocean surface (blue curves) and in situ pH (green curves), a measure of the acidity of ocean water. Measurements are from three stations from the Atlantic (29°10′N, 15°30′W – dark blue/dark green; 31°40′N, 64°10′W – blue/green) and the Pacific Oceans (22°45′N, 158°00′W − light blue/light green). Full details of the datasets shown here are provided in the underlying report and the Technical Summary Supplementary Material. {Figures 2.1 and 3.18; Figure TS.5}

 

 

  • The atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) have all increased since 1750 due to human activity. In 2011 the concentrations of these greenhouse gases were 391 ppm11, 1803 ppb, 324 ppb and exceeded the pre-industrial levels by about 40%, 150%, and 20%, respectively. {2.2, 5.2, 6.1, 6.2}

 

  • Concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O now substantially exceed the highest concentrations recorded in ice cores during the past 800,000 years. The mean rates of increase in atmospheric concentrations over the past century are, with very high confidence, unprecedented in the last 22,000 years. {5.2, 6.1, 6.2}

 

  • Annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 8.3 [7.6 to 9.0] GtC12 yr–1 averaged over 2002–2011 (high confidence) and were 9.5 [8.7 to 10.3] GtC yr–1 in 2011, 54% above the 1990 level. Annual net CO2  emissions from anthropogenic land use change were 0.9 [0.1 to 1.7] GtC yr–1 on average during 2002 to 2011 (medium confidence). {6.3}

 

  • From 1750 to 2011, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have released 365 [335 to 395] GtC to the atmosphere, while deforestation and other land use change are estimated to have released 180 [100 to 260] GtC. This results in cumulative anthropogenic emissions of 545 [460 to 630] GtC. {6.3}

 

  • Of these cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions, 240 [230 to 250] GtC have accumulated in the atmosphere, 155 [125 to 185] GtC have been taken up by the ocean and 150 [60 to 240] GtC have accumulated in natural terrestrial ecosystems (cf. cumulative residual land sink). {Figure TS.4, 3.8, 6.3}

 

  • Ocean acidification is quantified by decreases in pH13. The pH of ocean surface water has decreased by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era (high confidence), corresponding to a 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration (see Figure SPM.4). {3.8., Box 3.2}
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