Oliver Angelil

PhD Student

Data Scientist - Credit Suisse
Email: oliver.angelil@unsw.edu.au
Supervisors: Dr Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, A/Prof Lisa Alexander, Dr Markus Donat

Thesis Title

Uncertainty Around Probabilistic Event Attribution Statements for Extreme Weather Events

Biography

Oliver started his PhD in March 2015 at the Climate Change Research Centre at the UNSW. His research investigates how human activity (through our greenhouse-gas emissions) has contributed to the frequency and nature of weather extremes. Answers to these questions can be reached by analysing output from climate models run under a range of climate scenarios forced with specific concentrations of greenhouse gases — some representative of a theoretical world supposing humans had never interfered with the climate system. Solving the problem relies on credible climate model simulations in periods where we have poor observations (e.g. 150 years ago when the climate was "natural"). However, since climate models are imperfect, he uses statistical methods to select subsets of models or weight models differently, such that they collectively compare well to training observations in-sample. If results are satisfactory after cross-validation (in sample) or model-as-truth experiments (out-of-sample), he then applies the trained statistical models out-of-sample into unknown territory! These machine learning techniques can improve hindcast/prediction skill of past/future climate.

Visit Olivier's website here

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